India’s Consumer Price Inflation for September 2015 shot up to 4.41%. Much of this is based on the flattening of the inflation index last year between October and December. The base effect will ensure inflation looks high. Inflation in certain components, though, is starting to show. As you can see, fuel inflation (despite the large fall in fuel prices, which have been negated by higher duties) has been rising. Food, Transport, Medical and Household item costs seem to be slowly going up. Rural inflation has gone above 5%, even as urban shows a small uptick: Our View: The Next Three Months Are Gonna See High Inflation We’re getting some mixed signals now. Inflation is up on the base effect but the slope of inflation is showing that it isn’t following the trajectory of last year. On a month on month basis inflation has calmed down (August was terrible) but the quarterly move (which negates the annual base effect) is still fairly high at 10% plus.… (Read On…)
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